Influence of the fuel cell technology on CO2 emissions reduction in Iran according to outlook 2030

1. Introduction

Substituting renewable and clean sources with fossil fuel has been considered in recent years due to two major problems: environmental impacts and global warming (Jahangir et al., 2019; Mehrpooya et al., 2019). However, today fossil fuels have the most important role in supplying energy demand in the world(Mehrpooya et al., 2020). The biomass, wind, solar, hydropower, and geothermal are the most practical renewable resources (Mousavi et al., 2020). Hence, renewable energies can be a key role in solving these challenges and CO₂ emissions reduction (Roumi et al., 2017; Vivas et al., 2018; Yousefi et al., 2016). In the 21st century, hydrogen energy and types of fuel cells play an important role to reduce the emission of CO₂, climate change, and supplying permanent and secure energy for the future (Edwards et al., 2008). The main sources of hydrogen production routs can be categorized as natural gas (by steam reforming), biomass, coal, and water electrolysis(Edwards et al., 2008). Also, the Hydrogen energy has many applications such as storage of energy, the fuel of fuel cells for power generation, and transportation (Edwards et al., 2008; Yazdanfar et al., 2015). Also, renewable resources can be considered as a proper source of hydrogen, that solar energy has been reported as an economic recourse (Feeley III et al., 2008). Fuel cells are one of the most important applications of hydrogen energy. A fuel cell system consists of three main parts: cathode, electrolyte, and anode, that hydrogen and oxygen of the air enter the anode and cathode sides, respectively. DC electricity is considered as the main product of a fuel cell, which is produced by electrochemical reactions. Also, heat and water are the byproducts of a fuel cell (Haseli, 2018). Fuel cells have two important advantages: high efficiency and lack of destructive effects on the environment (McNutt and Johnson, 1999). The most common applications of fuel cells can be pointed to the power generating plants, transportation, remote village and electricity generators in building (Abdalla et al., 2018; Ahmed and Krumpelt, 2001). Based on the increasing energy demand in many countries, hydrogen and fuel cells will be as a sustainable energy resource and the final fuel for the man (Bahrami and Abbaszadeh, 2013). According to the 2030 protocol, the share of renewable energies should be exceeded 30% at no extra cost, in order to reduce CO₂ emission (Ghobadian et al., 2009; Said et al., 2018). Figure 1 exhibits the contribution of each energy sector to CO₂ emissions in Iran. Accordingly, many researchers have been studied on the plans of the countries about reduction of the CO₂ emissions at 2030 by using renewable energies. Namely, Zafar Said et al. (Said et al., 2018) proposed the plans of the government of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for greenhouse gas reduction with a renewable energy mix in 2030. The results show that by increasing the share of the renewable energy mix by 5%, CO₂ emissions decrease 7%. Mohamed Azeroual et al. (AZEROUAL et al., 2018) predicted the power capacity of the solar and wind power plants in Morocco in 2030. The outcomes depict that the available capacity of the solar and wind energies at 2030, are about 4713 MW and 4087 MW, respectively. In Spain, the total required electricity must be supplied by renewable energies at 2030 (Girard et al., 2016). In (Girard et al., 2016), the outlooks of the renewable energies in Spain is studied, and the economic analysis is conducted. The results illustrate the PV solar energy is the most important source for electricity energy demand. Michelle Fisher (Fisher, 2016) introduced the key actions, which must be employed by government of the Scotland to 50% of the total energy demand is supplied by renewable energies in 2030. According to the International Energy Agency (IAEA), in 2011, Iran produced 520 million tons of carbon dioxide, which is among the top 10 countries in the world (Roumi et al., 2018; Yousefi et al., 2018b). In the top ten CO₂ emitters (TTCE), in 2030, the CO₂ emissions will increase 26.5 – 36.5% in contrast to 2005 (Dong et al., 2018). The performed investigations show that 68% of the global CO₂ emissions are produced by these 10 countries (Dudley, 2015). The Paris Agreement is a valuable convention which has been ratified in December 2015 (Dong et al., 2018). This agreement is about climate change, global warming and CO₂ emissions reduction, which has been marked by 160 counties (Ding and Li, 2017). These countries agreed that restrict global warming to 1.5°C, and an average temperature lower than 2°C. For achieving the target of CO₂ emissions reduction, the countries based on their national conditions, propose their Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC). For instance, according to the INDC goal, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia must be reduced the greenhouse gas emissions by 40%, 26%, 37% and 29%, respectively, in 2030 (Dong et al., 2018). Also, Iran, business as usual (BAU) must be reduced the CO₂ emissions by 4% in 2030. Figure 2 indicates actual and prediction of the contribution of energy resources for power generation until 2030 (Watanabe, 2007) . It is shown that, by 2030, the energy demand of the world is estimated about 34000 TWh. Natural gas and renewable energies have more growth than other energy resources and the best solutions for solving this problem.

In the present work, due to the CO₂ emissions concern in Iran, fuel cell technology is proposed as one of the promising solutions for this problem. Then, the power capacity of the fuel cells in Iran is forecasted in 2030. Moreover, the amount of reduced CO₂ emissions using fuel cell technology is investigated. Also, the types of fuel cells and Progress and the trend of development of the fuel cells are described. In addition, the main fuel cell projects in Iran are presented in detail. The power capacity of fuel cells in supplying energy for Iran in 2030 is estimated and the influence of the fuel cell technology on reducing CO₂ emissions is introduced. In the end, for calculating the number of income external cost reduction by fuel cell technology, an economic analysis is conducted. Figure 3 displays the target followed in this investigation.

Figure 1. The share of each energy sector in producing CO₂ for Iran.

Figure 2. Prediction of the contribution of energy resources to power generation by 2030.

Figure 3. the objective followed in this study.

2. Materials and methods

2.1. Technology of the fuel cells

Fuel cells are converter devices, which convert the chemical energy of the fuel to the electricity directly, and named by kind of their electrolyte (solid or liquid) (Ghorbani et al., 2018). Electrochemical reactions are carried out on the catalysts of electrodes, which is between oxygen and hydrogen (Mehrpooya et al., 2016). Figure 4 denotes the schematic of a fuel cell system. The main kinds of fuel cells are the Proton exchange membrane (PEMFCs), Alkaline, Direct methanol, Phosphoric acid, Molten carbonate, and Solid oxide (Edwards et al., 2008), that the specifications of them with main advantages and disadvantages are summarized in Table 1. As can be seen, MCFC and SOFC are utilized in high operating temperatures. PEM and Alkaline fuel cells are suitable for low operating temperatures. The investigations on fuel cells have been started since the 19th century (1838) (Andújar and Segura, 2009), and so far, by developing the technology of fuel cells, applications of them, such as aircraft, buses, mobile, and portable computers have been expanded (Ball and Wietschel, 2009). Also, fuel cells have two main limitations: relatively high cost and a lesser extent the source of fuel (Abdalla et al., 2018).

Figure 4. The schematic diagram of a fuel cell system.

Table 1. Summary of specifications of the fuel cell kinds

2.2. The main projects of the fuel cells in Iran

In this section, some of the most important projects that have been carried out about types of fuel cells in recent years, are presented. The leading fuel cell technology countries are Japan, the United States, Canada, Germany, and Italy. Because Iran has a rich supply of crude oil, hydrogen that is the inlet fuel for fuel cells can be generated from crude oil (Ghobadian et al., 2009). Table 2 demonstrates the specification of the main projects that have been carried out about fuel cells in Iran.According to this table, in Iran, PEMFC and SOFC types of fuel cells have been utilized in the main projects that approximately have an acceptable output power.

Table 2. Specification of the occurred main projects that about fuel cells in Iran (Alipour and Sheykhan, 2017).

2.3. Influence of the fuel cells on reduction of CO₂ emissions

Figure 5 depicts the prediction of the power capacity of the fuel cells in Iran to 2030 based on occurred projects from 2005 to 2015. Forecasting of fuel cells output power is performed by the FORECAST function of the Microsoft Excel Worksheet and Trend extrapolation.  More information about this method  has been reported in (Blackman Jr, 1971). The results show, at 2030, the power capacity is estimated with the value of 3451457 kWh. Also, according to this figure, gradient of the variations from 2007 (1105512 kWh) to 2012 (1193112 kWh) is slow. In Iran, for generating electricity, the amount of CO₂ emissions by Diesel, Combined Cycle, Gas and steam power plant are 747.264, 492.548, 876.245 and 817.226 gr/kWh, respectively (Bekhrad et al., 2018). So, in 2030, by utilizing fuel cells which do not produce any pollution instead of these power plants can be decreased CO₂ emission. Table 3 illustrates summarize of influence of the fuel cells on reduction of CO₂ emissions in Iran at 2030. According to this table, on average, fuel cell technology can decrease CO₂ emissions by 2531.02 ton. By 2030, the amount of CO₂ emissions for Iran based on the submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) report to the Paris agreement as an official contract report in 19 Nov. 2015 using Business as Usual (BAU) system, is estimated to be about 1850 million tons.  On the other hand, according to NDE of the Iran, the CO₂ emissions must be reduced by 4% (74 million tons). So, according to the obtained results, on average fuel cells technology can decrease 0.003% of 74 million tonnes CO₂ emissions by replacing with one fossil power plant.

Table 3. Summarize of influence of the fuel cells on the reduction of CO2 emissions in Iran in 2030 (Bekhrad et al., 2018)

Figure 5. Prediction of the power capacity of the fuel cells in Iran to 2030.